Publications
Download of the entire list of publications here.
Tropical Cyclones
Desirability and Feasibility of a Global Reanalysis of Tropical Cyclones
Emanuel, K., P. Caroff, S. Delgado, C.‘. Guard, M. Guishard, C. Hennon, J. Knaff, K.R. Knapp, J. Kossin, C. Schreck, C. Velden, and J. Vigh, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0226.1, Published Online: 1 November 2017
Identification of Tropical Cyclone Storm Types Using Crowdsourcing
Knapp, K.R., J.L. Matthews, J.P. Kossin, and C.C. Hennon, Monthly Weather Review 2016 144:10, 3783-3798
The Influence of Model Resolution on the Simulated Sensitivity of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity to Sea Surface Temperature
Strazzo, S. E., J. B. Elsner, T. E. LaRow, H. Murakami, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao (2016), J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 8, 1037–1054.
The Arbitrary Definition of the Current Atlantic Major Hurricane Landfall Drought
Hart, R.E., D.R. Chavas, and M.P. Guishard, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2016 97:5, 713-722
FLIGHT+: The Extended Flight Level Dataset for Tropical Cyclones (Version 1.1)
Vigh, J. L., N. M. Dorst, C. L. Williams, E. W. Uhlhorn, B. W. Klotz, J. Martinez, H. E. Willoughby, F. D. Marks, Jr., D. R. Chavas, 2016, Tropical Cyclone Data Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado.
VDM+: The Enhanced Vortex Message Dataset: Structure, Intensity, and Environmental Parameters from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Vigh, J., 2015, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-517+STR, 72 pp, doi:10.5065/D6PR7T26
Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic U.S. Tropical Cyclone Wind Damage Potential
Caron, L., L. Hermanson, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2015), Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2417–2425. doi: 10.1002/2015GL063303.
Depositional Evidence for the Kamikaze Typhoons and Links to Changes in Typhoon Climatology
J.D. Woodruff, K. Kanamaru, S. Kundu, T.L. Cook; Geology ; 43 (1): 91–94. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G36209.1
Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes
Walsh, K.J., S.J. Camargo, G.A. Vecchi, A.S. Daloz, J. Elsner, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, Y. Lim, M. Roberts, C. Patricola, E. Scoccimarro, A.H. Sobel, S. Strazzo, G. Villarini, M. Wehner, M. Zhao, J.P. Kossin, T. LaRow, K. Oouchi, S. Schubert, H. Wang, J. Bacmeister, P. Chang, F. Chauvin, C. Jablonowski, A. Kumar, H. Murakami, T. Ose, K.A. Reed, R. Saravanan, Y. Yamada, C.M. Zarzycki, P.L. Vidale, J.A. Jonas, and N. Henderson, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015 96:6, 997-1017
QSCAT-R: The QuikSCAT Tropical Cyclone Radial Structure Dataset
Chavas, D. R., and J. Vigh, 2014: NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-513+STR, 25 pp, doi:10.5065/D6J67DZ4.
Changes in Large-scale Controls of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity with the Phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Caron, LP., Boudreault, M. & Bruyère, C.L. Clim Dyn (2015) 44: 1801. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5
Hurricane Climatology: A Modern Statistical Guide Using R
By: James B. Elsner & Thomas H. Jagger, Oxford Press
Hurricane Clusters in the Vicinity of Florida
Jagger, T.H. and J.B. Elsner, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2012 51:5, 869-877
Maximum Wind Speeds and US Hurricane Losses
Murnane, R. J., and J. B. Elsner (2012), Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052740.
Tornadoes, Hail and Severe Convective Storms
Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views
Elsner JB, Jagger TH, Fricker T, Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views (2016). PLoS ONE 11(11): e0166895. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0166895
Tornadoes in Europe: An Underestimated Threat
Antonescu, B., D.M. Schultz, A. Holzer, and P. Groenemeijer Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2017 98:4, 713-728
Atmosfear: Communicating the Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Weather
Janković, V. and D.M. Schultz Atmosfear: Communicating the Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Weather, Weather, Climate, and Society 2017 9:1, 27-37
Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the observational datasets
Antonescu, B., D.M. Schultz, F. Lomas, and T. Kühne, Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the Observational Datasets, Monthly Weather Review 2016 144:7, 2445-2480
Reexamining the United Kingdom’s greatest tornado outbreak: Forecasting the limited extent of tornadoes along a cold front
Apsley, M.L., K.J. Mulder, and D.M. Schultz, Reexamining the United Kingdom’s Greatest Tornado Outbreak: Forecasting the Limited Extent of Tornadoes along a Cold Front, Weather and Forecasting 2016 31:3, 853-875
Understanding How Climate Change Could Affect Tornadoes
Elsner, J. and M. Guishard (2014), Understanding How Climate Change Could Affect Tornadoes, Eos Trans. AGU, 95(45), 412.
Extratropical Storms
Feature tracking in high-resolution regional climate data.
Massey, N. (2016) Computers and Geosciences, 93: 36-44.
High-resolution Modeling Studies of the Changing Risks of Damage from Extratropical Cyclones
Cipullo, M., North Carolina State University, Master of Science Thesis, Marine, Earth & Atmos Sciences, 2013
A Climatology of Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storms
Evan, Amato T., Suzana J. Camargo, 2011: Journal of Climate, 24, 140–158. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1
Atlantic Subtropical Storms. Part II: Climatology
Guishard, MP, Evans, JL, Hart, RE, 2009: Journal of Climate, 22, 3574–3594. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2346.1
Flooding, Oceans and Climate
Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise
Kulp, S. & Strauss, B.H. Climatic Change (2017) 142: 477. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1963-7
Flooding threshold rainfall events in Bermuda.
Johnston, MC, Guishard, MP, Peñate, I, Currie, ID, Weather (accepted 13 August 2017: in press).
Strong Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on Flood Risk Around the World
Ward, P.J., Jongman, B., Kummu, M., Dettinger, M.D., Sperna Weiland, F.C., Winsemius, H.C., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014 111 (44) 15659-15664; doi:10.1073/pnas.1409822111
Warming of the Oceans and Implications for the (Re)insurance Industry
Niehörster, F., Aichinger, M., Murnane,R., Ranger, N., Surminski, S., June 2013, The Geneva Association
Influence of African dust on ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic
Evan, A. T., G. R. Foltz, D. Zhang and D. J. Vimont (2011), Nature Geoscience, 4, 762–765, doi:10.1038/ngeo1276.
The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature
Evan, A. T., D. J. Vimont, R. Bennartz, J. P. Kossin and A. K. Heidinger (2009), Science, Vol. 324. no. 5928, pp. 778 – 781, doi:10.1126/science.1167404.
How Long Does the Climate “Remember” a Tropical Cyclone?
Hart, R., R. Maue, and M. Watson, 2008: How long does the climate “remember” a tropical cyclone? Bulletin of the Amer. Meteor. Soc., May 2008, 596-598.
Catastrophe Modeling
Epistemic Uncertainty, Rival Models, and Closure
By: Taylor, C. D. Perkins, R. Murnane, W. Graf, and Y. Lee
Natural Hazards Review
Robust Simulation for Sensitivity Analysis of Catastrophe Risk Losses
By: Murnane, R. J., C. E. Taylor, T. Jagger and Z. Hu Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline
By: James Elsner, King Burch & Thomas Jagger
EOS
Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
By: Richard Murnane, C. Taylor, T. Jagger, Z. Hu
CRC Press